J. For. Sci., 2011, 57(6):242-249 | DOI: 10.17221/104/2010-JFS

Geographical variability of sprucebark beetle development under climate change in the Czech Republic

T. Hlásny1,2, L. Zajíčková2, M. Turčáni2, J. Holuša2,3, Z. Sitková1
1 National Forest Centre - Forest Research Institute Zvolen, Zvolen, Slovakia
2 Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Prague, Czech Republic
3 Forestry and Game Management Research Institute, Jíloviště-Strnady, Czech Republic

Climate change is expected to influence the distribution and population dynamics of many insect pests, with potential severe impacts on forests. Spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Col.: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) is the most important forest insect pest in Europe whose development is strictly regulated by air temperature. Therefore, climate change is anticipated to induce changes in the pest's distribution and development. We used the PHENIPS model to evaluate climate change impacts on the distribution and voltinism of spruce bark beetle in the Czech Republic. Two future time periods - 2025-2050 (near future) and 2075-2100 (distant future) - are addressed. The period 1961-1990 is used as the reference. We found that while a two-generation regime dominated in the Czech Republic in the reference period, significant three-generation regime regions are projected to appear in the near future. In the distant future, the three-generation regime can be expected to occur over all existing coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The analysis of altitudinal shift of n-generation regime regions indicates noticeable expansion of Ips typographus development to higher elevations, leading for example to disappearance of one-generation regime regions in the distant future. Uncertainties and limitations of the presented findings are discussed as well.

Keywords: bark beetle altitudinal shift; climate change scenario; Ips typographus generations; temperature increase

Published: June 30, 2011  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Hlásny T, Zajíčková L, Turčáni M, Holuša J, Sitková Z. Geographical variability of sprucebark beetle development under climate change in the Czech Republic. J. For. Sci. 2011;57(6):242-249. doi: 10.17221/104/2010-JFS.
Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. Anderbrant O. (1989): Reemergence and second brood in the bark beetle Ips typographus. Holarctic Ecology, 12: 494-500. Go to original source...
    2. Baier P., Pennerstorfer J., Schopf A. (2007): PHENIPS - A comprehensive phenology model of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytinae) as a tools for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation. Forest Ecology and Management, 249: 171-186. Go to original source...
    3. Colwell R.K., Brehm G., Cardelús C.L., Gilman A.C., Longino J.T. (2008): Global warming, elevational range shifts, and lowland biotic attrition in the wet tropics. Science, 322: 258-261. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    4. Déqué M. (2007): Frequency of precipitation and temperature extremes over France in an anthropogenic scenario: model results and statistical correction according to observed values. Global and Planetary Change, 57: 16-26. Go to original source...
    5. Dutilleul P., Nef L., Frigon D. (2000): Assessment of site characteristics as predictors of the vulnerability of Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.) stands to attack by Ips typographus L. (Col., Scolytidae). Journal of Applied Entomology, 124: 1-5. Go to original source...
    6. Farda A., Déqué M., Somot S., Horányi A., Spiridonov V., Tóth H. (2010): Model ALADIN as a Regional Climate Model for Central and Eastern Europe. Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica, 54: 313-332. Go to original source...
    7. Giorgi F., Coppola E. (2007): European climate-change oscillation (ECO). Geophysical Research Letters, 34: L21703. Go to original source...
    8. Grodzki W., Loch J., Armatys P. (2006): Occurrence of Ips typographus (L.) in wind-damaged Norway spruce stands of Kudłoń massif in the Gorce National Park. Ochrona Beskidów Záchodních, 1: 125-137. (in Polish)
    9. Herms D.A., Mattson W.J. (1992): The dilemma of plants: to grow or defend. Quarterly Review of Biology, 67: 283-335. Go to original source...
    10. Hlásny T., Turčáni M. (2009): Insect pests as climate change driven disturbances in forest ecosystems. In: Střelcová K., Mátyás Cs., Kleidon A. et al. (eds): Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards. Berlin, Springer: 165-178. Go to original source...
    11. Hlásny T., Barcza Z., Fabrika M., Balázs B., Churkina G., Pajtík J., Sedmák R.,Turčáni M. (2011): Climate change impacts on growth and carbon balance of forests in Central Europe. Climate Research (in press). Go to original source...
    12. Jönsson A.M., Appelberg G., Harding S., Barring L. (2009): Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. Global Change Biology, 15: 486-499. Go to original source...
    13. Jump A.S., Mátyas C., Pennuelas J. (2009): The altitudefor-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 12: 694-701. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    14. Kenis M., Wermelinger B., Grégoire J.C. (2004): Research on parasitoids and predators of Scolytidae - a review. In: Lieutier F., Day K., Battisti A., Grégoire J.C., Evans H.F. (eds): European Bark and Wood Boring Insects in Living Trees. A Synthesis. Dordrecht, Kluwer: 237-290. Go to original source...
    15. Lange H., Okland B., Krokene P. (2006): Thresholds in the life cycle of the spruce bark beetle under climate change. Interjournal for Complex Systems, 1648: 1-10.
    16. MacLeod A., Evans H.F., Baker R.H.A. (2002): An analysis of pest risk from an Asian longhorn beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) to hardwood trees in the European community. Crop Protection, 21: 635-645. Go to original source...
    17. Matheron G. (1973): The intrinsic random function and their applications. Advances in Applied Probability, 5: 439-469. Go to original source...
    18. Meehl G.A., Tebaldi C. (2004): More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century. Science, 305: 994-997 Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    19. Netherer S., Pennerstorfer J. (2001): Parameters relevant for modelling the potential development of Ips typographus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Integrated Pest Management Reviews, 6: 177-184. Go to original source...
    20. Netherer S., Schopf A. (2010): Potential effects of climate change on insect herbivores in European forests - General aspects and the pine processionary moth as specific example. Forest Ecology and Management, 259: 831-838. Go to original source...
    21. Olfert O., Weiss R.M. (2006): Impact of climate change on potential distributions and relative abundances of Oulema melanopus, Meligethes viridescens and Ceutorhynchus obstrictus in Canada. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 113: 295-301. Go to original source...
    22. Porter H.J., Parry L.M., Carter R.T. (1991): The potential effects of climate change on agricultural pests. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology, 57: 221-240. Go to original source...
    23. Rouault G., Candau J., Lieutier F., Nageleisen L., Martin J., Warzee N. (2006): Effects of drought and heat on forest insect populations in relation to the 2003 drought in Western Europe. Annals of Forest Science, 63: 613-624. Go to original source...
    24. Trnka M., Muška F., Semerádová D., Dubrovský M., Kocmánková E., Žalud Z. (2007): European Corn Borer life stage model: Regional estimates of pest development and spatial distribution under present and future climate. Ecological Modelling, 207: 61-84. Go to original source...
    25. Vizi L., Hlásny T., Farda A., Štěpánek P., Skalák P., Sitková Z. (2011): Geostatistical modeling of high resolution climate change scenario data. Időjárás, 115, 1-2.
    26. Walther G.R. (2004) Plants in a warmer world. Perspectives in Plant Ecology, 6: 169-185. Go to original source...
    27. Wegensteiner R. (2004): Pathogenes in bark beetles. In: Lieutier F., Day K., Battisti A., Grégoire J.C., Evans H.F. (eds): European Bark and Wood Boring Insects in Living Trees. A synthesis. Dordrecht, Kluwer: 291-313. Go to original source...
    28. Wermelinger B., Seifert M. (1998): Analysis of the temperature dependent development of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytidae). Journal of Applied Entomology, 122: 185-191. Go to original source...

    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY NC 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


    Return to the content