J. For. Sci., 2018, 64(3):139-147 | DOI: 10.17221/79/2017-JFS

Application of dendroclimatology in evaluation of climatic changesOriginal Paper

Mohammad Reza KHALEGHI*
Department of Watershed Management Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, Torbat-e-Jam Branch, Islamic Azad University, Torbat-e-Jam, Iran

The present study tends to describe the survey of climatic changes in the case of the Bojnourd region of North Khorasan, Iran. Climate change due to a fragile ecosystem in semi-arid and arid regions such as Iran is one of the most challenging climatological and hydrological problems. Dendrochronology, which uses tree rings to their exact year of formation to analyse temporal and spatial patterns of processes in the physical and cultural sciences, can be used to evaluate the effects of climate change. In this study, the effects of climate change were simulated using dendrochronology (tree rings) and an artificial neural network (ANN) for the period from 1800 to 2015. The present study was executed using the Quercus castaneifolia C.A. Meyer. Tree-ring width, temperature, and precipitation were the input parameters for the study, and climate change parameters were the outputs. After the training process, the model was verified. The verified network and tree rings were used to simulate climatic parameter changes during the past times. The results showed that the integration of dendroclimatology and an ANN renders a high degree of accuracy and efficiency in the simulation of climate change. The results showed that in the last two centuries, the climate of the study area changed from semiarid to arid, and its annual precipitation decreased significantly.

Keywords: tree ring; autoregressive standardization; temperature; precipitation; Iran

Published: March 31, 2018  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago Chicago Notes IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
KHALEGHI MR. Application of dendroclimatology in evaluation of climatic changes. J. For. Sci. 2018;64(3):139-147. doi: 10.17221/79/2017-JFS.
Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. Amiri M.J., Eslamian S.S. (2010): Investigation of climate change in Iran. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 3: 208-216. Go to original source...
    2. Anctil F., Rat A. (2005): Evaluation of neural network streamflow forecasting on 47 watersheds. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 10: 85-88. Go to original source...
    3. Babaeian I., Modiriana R., Karimiana M. Zarghami M. (2015): Simulation of climate change in Iran during 2071-2100 using PRECIS regional climate modelling system. Desert, 20: 123-134.
    4. Bogino S.M., Jobbágy E.G. (2011): Climate and groundwater effects on the establishment, growth, and death of Prosopis caldenia trees in the Pampas (Argentina). Forest Ecology and Management, 262: 1766-1774. Go to original source...
    5. Bush M.B., Metcalfe S.E. (2012): Latin America and the Caribbean. In: Metcalfe S.E., Nash D.J. (eds): Quaternary Environmental Change in the Tropics. Chichester, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.: 263-313. Go to original source...
    6. Cleaveland M.K., Stahle D.W. (1989): Tree-ring analysis of surplus and deficit runoff in the White River, Arkansas. Water Resources Research, 25: 1391-1401. Go to original source...
    7. Conkey L.E. (1979): Response of tree-ring density to climate in Maine, U.S.A. Tree-Ring Bulletin, 39: 29-38.
    8. Danek M., Kłusek M., Kr±piec M. (2007): The oak chronology (948-1314 AD) for the Zary area (SW Poland). Geochronometria, 26: 47-52. Go to original source...
    9. De Ridder M., Van den Bulcke J., Vansteenkiste D., Van Loo D., Dierick M., Masschaele B., De Witte Y., Mannes D., Lehmann E., Beeckman H., Van Hoorebeke L., Van Acker J. (2011): High-resolution proxies for wood density variations in Terminalia superba. Annals of Botany, 107: 293-302. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    10. Di Filippo A., Alessandrini A., Biondi F., Blasi S., Portoghesi L., Piovesan G. (2010): Climate change and oak growth decline: Dendroecology and stand productivity of a Turkey oak (Quercus cerris L.) old stored coppice in Central Italy. Annals of Forest Science, 67: 706. Go to original source...
    11. Douglass A.E. (1941): Crossdating in dendrochronology. Journal of Forestry, 39: 825-831.
    12. Edmondson J., Friedman J., Meko D., Touchan R., Scott J., Edmondson A. (2014): Dendroclimatic potential of plains cottonwood (Populus deltoides subsp. monilifera) from the Northern Great Plains, USA. Tree-Ring Research, 70: 21-30. Go to original source...
    13. Gea-Izquierdo G., Cherubini P., Cañellas I. (2011): Tree-rings reflect the impact of climate change on Quercus ilex L. along a temperature gradient in Spain over the last 100 years. Forest Ecology and Management, 262: 1807-1816. Go to original source...
    14. Gholami V., Ahmadi Jolandan M., Torkaman J. (2017a): Evaluation of climate change in northern Iran during the last four centuries by using dendroclimatology. Natural Hazards, 85: 1835-1850. Go to original source...
    15. Gholami V., Darvari Z., Mohseni Saravi M. (2015): Artificial neural network technique for rainfall temporal distribution simulation (case study: Kechik region). Caspian Journal of Environmental Sciences, 13: 53-60.
    16. Gholami V., Khaleghi M.R., Sebghati M. (2017b): A method of groundwater quality assessment based on fuzzy networkCANFIS and geographic information system (GIS). Applied Water Science, 7: 3633-3647. Go to original source...
    17. Gholzom E.H., Gholami V. (2012): A comparison between natural forests and reforested lands in terms of runoff generation potential and hydrologic response (case study: Kasilian Watershed). Soil and Water Research, 7: 166-173. Go to original source...
    18. Goyal R.K. (2004): Sensitivity of evapotranspiration to global warming: A case study of arid zone of Rajasthan (India). Agricultural Water Management, 69: 1-11. Go to original source...
    19. Griggs C., Pearson C., Manning S.W., Lorentzen B. (2014): A 250-year annual precipitation reconstruction and drought assessment for Cyprus from Pinus brutia Ten. tree-rings. International Journal of Climatology, 34: 2702-2714. Go to original source...
    20. Grissino-Mayer H., Kobziar L., Harley G., Russell K., Laforest L. (2010): The historical dendroarchaeology of the Ximénez-Fatio House, St. Augustine, Florida, U.S.A. TreeRing Research, 66: 61-73. Go to original source...
    21. Jafari M. (2010): Climate Change Impacts on Iranian Ecosystems. Tehran, Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands: 332.
    22. Kames S., Tardif J.C., Bergeron Y. (2016): Continuous earlywood vessels chronologies in floodplain ring-porous species can improve dendrohydrological reconstructions of spring high flows and flood levels. Journal of Hydrology, 534: 377-389. Go to original source...
    23. Leal S., Campelo F., Luz A.L., Carneiro M.F., Santos J.A. (2015): Potential of oak tree-ring chronologies from Southern Portugal for climate reconstructions. Denderochronologia, 35: 4-13. Go to original source...
    24. Liu Y., Sun J., Song H., Cai Q., Bao G., Li X. (2010): Tree-ring hydrologic reconstructions for the Heihe River watershed, western China since AD 1430. Water Research, 44: 2781-2792. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    25. Lopez L., Villalba R., Pena-Claros M. (2012): Diameter growth rates in tropical dry forests: Contributions to the sustainable management of forests in the Bolivian Cerrado biogeographical province. BOSQUE, 33: 99-107.
    26. Maier H.R., Dandy G.C. (2000): Neural networks for the prediction and forecasting of water resources variables: A review of modeling issues and applications. Environmental Modelling & Software, 15: 101-124. Go to original source...
    27. Martinelli N. (2004): Climate from dendrochronology: Latest developments and results. Global and Planetary Change, 40: 129-139. Go to original source...
    28. Naurzbaev M.M., Hughes M.K., Vaganov E.A. (2004): Treering growth curves as sources of climatic information. Quaternary Research, 62: 126-133. Go to original source...
    29. Nayebi M., Khalili D., Amin S., Zand-Parsa S. (2006): Daily stream flow prediction capability of artificial neural networks as influenced by minimum air temperature data. Biosystems Engineering, 95: 557-567. Go to original source...
    30. Nistor M.M. (2016): Spatial distribution of climate indices in the Emilia-Romagna region. Meteorological Applications, 23: 304-313. Go to original source...
    31. Paredes-Villanueva K., López L., Brookhouse M., Navarro Cerrillo R.M. (2015): Rainfall and temperature variability in Bolivia derived from the tree-ring width of Amburana cearensis (Fr. Allem.) A.C. Smith. Dendrochronologia, 35: 80-86. Go to original source...
    32. Rix M., Kirkham T. (2009): 640. Quercus castaneifolia. Curtis's Botanical Magazine, 26: 54-63. Go to original source...
    33. Samani N., Gohari-Moghadam M., Safavi A.A. (2007): A simple neural network model for the determination of aquifer parameters. Journal of Hydrology, 340: 1-11. Go to original source...
    34. Soepadmo E. (1972): Fagaceae. In: Van Steenis C.G.G.J. (ed.): Flora Malesiana. Series 1. Volume 7. Groningen, WoltersNoordhoff Publishing: 265-403.
    35. Steinschneider S., Cook E.R., Briffa K.R., Lall U. (2017): Hierarchical regression models for dendroclimatic standardization and climate reconstruction. Dendrochronologia, 44: 174-186. Go to original source...
    36. Stokes M.A., Smiley T.L. (1996): An Introduction to TreeRing Dating. Tucson, University of Arizona Press: 73.
    37. Sy N.L. (2006): Modelling the infiltration process with a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 51: 3-20. Go to original source...
    38. Wigley T.M.L., Briffa K.R., Jones P.D. (1984): On the average value of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology, 23: 201-213. Go to original source...
    39. Woodhouse C.A., Meko D.M. (2002): Introduction to treering based streamflow reconstructions. Southwest Hydrology, 1: 14-15.
    40. Woodhouse C.A., Meko D.M., MacDonald G.M., Stahle D.W., Cooke E.R. (2010): A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107: 21283-21288. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...

    This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY NC 4.0), which permits non-comercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original publication is properly cited. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.


    Return to the content