J. For. Sci., 2026, 72(10):501-519 | DOI: 10.17221/76/2026-JFS

Impacts of forest protection in the Czech Republic on the Central European wood market: A scenario analysisOriginal Paper

Petra Hlaváčková ORCID..., Andrea Janáková Sujová ORCID...

Department of Forest and Wood Product Economics and Policy, Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno, Czech Republic

Expanding forest protection may create a conflict between biodiversity conservation objectives and the availability of wood raw material for downstream industries. This study aimed to assess the potential impacts of this conflict on the Czech wood-processing sector and to identify mechanisms that could mitigate emerging raw-material shortages. A systematic synthesis of 311 unique studies was combined with an evidence-constrained scenario model incorporating supply restrictions, trade adjustment, production leakage, domestic adaptation, and sector-specific exposure. For the Czech reference industrial wood supply of 14.558 million m³, three scenarios were assessed: LOW (5%), CENTRAL (12.5%), and HIGH (37%). Under the CENTRAL scenario, reference trade adjustment reduced the deficit to 559.9 thousand m³, corresponding to 3.85% of baseline supply; with full implementation of the identified technical adaptation potential, the deficit could decline to 1.28%. Under the HIGH scenario, however, a deficit of 13.53% remained even after trade adjustment and maximum identified adaptation. The results show that the compatibility of stronger forest protection with the functioning of the wood-processing industry depends on the magnitude of the initial supply shock, trade response, implementation of adaptation measures, and maintenance of critical raw-material flows.

Keywords: market displacement; material efficiency; processing capacity; resource allocation; secondary fibre; supply-chain adaptation

Received: September 8, 2026; Revised: October 9, 2026; Accepted: October 12, 2026; Published: October 30, 2026  Show citation